LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2019 provides updated views of current fundamentals and the things that should persist as shorter-term concerns fade and emphasizes their four primary pillars for fundamental investing—policy, the economy, fixed income, and equities. As the headlines change daily, look to these pillars and LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2019 to help provide perspective on what really matters in the markets.
Where We Are Now
Excerpt from LPL Research
We believe fiscal stimulus from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, along with decreased regulation and increased government spending, will continue to support the U.S. economy in 2019, and that the potential impact is both larger and more durable than consensus expectations. At the same time, uncertainty around global trade continues to dampen the benefits of fiscal support and may be discouraging productivity-enhancing capital investment. We still believe self-interest is likely to bring the United States and China back to the negotiating table, but until we see progress, trade tensions remain the primary risk to our forecasts.
While fiscal policy has taken the lead, monetary policy grew more supportive in the first half of 2019. The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated earlier this year that it would likely hold on raising interest rates for the rest of 2019, partly in response to the market’s poor reaction to last December’s rate increase. With inflation low, global growth slowing, and trade risk still present, monetary policy may be too tight for the current environment. Even if not fully justified by the data, the Fed may choose to lower rates later this year to provide a buffer against increased uncertainty.
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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
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